| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Indiana | 14-27 | 1438.1 | -11.0 | 1427.1 | 17.0% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | North Carolina Central | 54-6 | 1427.1 | +0.0 | 1427.1 | 39.7% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Virginia Tech | 45-26 | 1427.1 | +52.2 | 1479.3 | 46.3% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Liberty | 21-7 | 1479.3 | +24.0 | 1503.3 | 65.0% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Coastal Carolina | 47-7 | 1503.3 | +21.7 | 1525.0 | 68.0% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Marshall | 24-48 | 1525.0 | -35.4 | 1489.6 | 49.5% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | James Madison | 27-63 | 1489.6 | -20.6 | 1469.0 | 30.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | App State | 24-21 | 1469.0 | +28.8 | 1497.8 | 58.6% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | UL Monroe | 31-6 | 1497.8 | +19.0 | 1516.8 | 82.7% |
| 13 | Nov 13 2025 | W | Troy | 33-0 | 1516.8 | +33.8 | 1550.6 | 52.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Georgia Southern | 45-10 | 1550.6 | +38.2 | 1588.8 | 62.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Georgia State | 27-10 | 1588.8 | +4.0 | 1592.8 | 93.7% |
| 18 | Dec 17 2025 | W | South Florida | 24-10 | 1592.8 | +40.3 | 1633.1 | 52.6% |